🏅 Top traders

Here's the main market if you want to predict February's outcome.

us learning that 4chan added pol the day after m00t met Jeffrey Epstein might not be enough to resolve this market but it sure has altered my brain chemistry

@traders looks like people forgot about this. It's up for grabs.

@ItsMe what is the qualifying event?

@prismatic none that I'm aware of

@ItsMe wanted to confirm a government shutdown isn't crazy?

@prismatic it probably won't be; I don't think the last shutdown trended enough.

@ItsMe ICE shooting didn’t do it?

@JimAusman If that didn't do it, then the resolution criteria need to be overhauled. This isn't a useful measure.

@ChurlishGambit the ICE shooting didn't trend enough. You can check the main market (linked in the description) to see the type of thing that meets the criteria. The shooting was big news in the U.S., but not so much worldwide.

@ItsMe ...right, and what I'm saying is, Google Trends are clearly not any longer a useful indicator of whether something that happened were "crazy"

@ChurlishGambit I think it was a tremendous event inside the US, but honestly, not much worldwide effect. Unlike the shooting, the Venezuela event literally saw a world leader get kidnapped and shipped off to the US. Much greater impact on world politics/diplomacy.

@ChurlishGambit Or maybe it really isn't as big of an event on a global scale as Americans perceive it? Two people were killed in the ICE shootings. Meanwhile, 3,000 to 6,000 or more were killed in Iran in January. On a global scale, the ICE shootings are a miniscule event, hardly notable at all outside of the US. From that perspective, they aren't even remotely close to crazy (in the sense of unexpectedness and global attention).

Also, you're arguing that your subjective interpretation of "crazy" is better than the market creator's subjective interpretation of "crazy" when it's entirely their discretion for what standard to use. If they choose to set a higher standard than you, that isn't somehow wrong. And I think the current standard is good: there are OOMs of difference in quantity of global attention directed at Venezuela vs. ICE and several times more than even Iran. It may not seem that way to us self-selected current-events nerds, since attentionally all of these events have taken up a lot of room, but that's the case for the average person globally, and the current standard helps account for that.

@spiderduckpig but Will Smith slapping Chris Rock was more "crazy?" It's nonsensical

@spiderduckpig I think this is also due to us underestimating how just much reach random celebrity news has. I think Rob Reiner would also qualify; Rob Reiner's death received 4 times more attention at its peak on Google Trends than the Iranian protests at their peak, even on Worldwide settings (on US settings, it was 11 times). And I think that is actually accurate to how much attention the average person devoted to each topic, as opposed to geopolitics nerds on prediction markets. For the average person, Rob Reiner's death apparently was genuinely more crazy than the Iranian protests.

But I don't see how to adjust for that, unless you want to just filter out celebrity events. Maybe using the VIX index instead as a data source for determining CRAZY events could work, though I imagine that would make for a much less interesting market, and be too heavily affected by macroeconomics instead of politics.

@spiderduckpig good points; however Rob Reiner would not qualify because I added the requirement of there being a Wikipedia page regarding the event.

Some non-US perspective:

• Never came across the name "Rob Reiner" until now

• It's no surprise to the rest of the world when people in the US get shot

@Primer Even AI seems to be confused about Rob Reiner:

Overview with AI

The well-known US director Rob Reiner did not die; rather, his son Nick Reiner was arrested after Rob and his wife Michele Reiner were found dead in their Los Angeles home in December 2025, victims of a violent crime involving stab wounds, with the son considered a suspect.

Cause of death for Rob and Michele: Stab wounds caused by a murder.

@Primer "Even AI?" It's wrong all the time lol

@ChurlishGambit Yeah, but that's GPT-2-level of being wrong 🤣

@Primer Not really, they're still very wrong, all the time. If you think otherwise...you've supped too deeply on the marketing propaganda

@ChurlishGambit You misunderstood. "Rob did not die, he was found dead in his home" is not the kind of mistake current AIs usually make.

@Primer Yes, it is. Hallucinations have not been solved, because they cannot be solved. You are just noticing them less, because you've become dependent on them.

@ChurlishGambit https://cdn.openai.com/gpt-5-system-card.pdf
"We find that gpt-5-main has a hallucination rate 26% smaller than GPT-4o"
"gpt-5-thinking has a hallucination rate 65% smaller than OpenAI o3."

I'm not saying its solved or anything, but its defintely gotten significantly better through model iterations + better grounding with web search.

@ChurlishGambit Dude, I noticed something stupid in an AI generated text. I don't know why you want to insist I've "become dependent on them". I've probably used AI willingly for 3 hours in my life, 2 of those was generating images with my kids.