MANIFOLD
💘What will happen in February 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
88
Ṁ1kṀ13k
resolved Mar 6
Resolved
YES
earthquake 7.0+ magnitude
Resolved
YES
noam chomsky alive until end of month
Resolved
YES
Anthropic or Meta release a new model
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
Resolved
YES
large tech company announces layoffs by my judgement
Resolved
YES
Sam Altman still CEO through end of month
Resolved
YES
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
Resolved
YES
american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran
Resolved
YES
trump posts on twitter/x ten or more times
Resolved
YES
Volcano dormant for half a year erupts
Resolved
YES
Will the Spurs Reach 42 Wins?
Resolved
N/A
the moon will set
Resolved
N/A
dick cheney still alive at end of month
Resolved
N/A
twitter/x banned in another country (announced, even if it can be circumvented)
Resolved
N/A
nVidia becomes the largest company in the history of the world (by market capitalization) at least once
Resolved
NO
ukraine russia ceasefire
Resolved
NO
china taiwan military conflict resulting in at least 1 death
Resolved
NO
major tech company merger/acquisition announced
Resolved
NO
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
Resolved
NO
An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ24 YES

@strutheo Mount Kanlaon erupted for the volcanic question and Aoba volcano

@rudyon Can you explain this in a little more detail? I feel like this is a trick question.

Surely, this did happen in February, right?

@Quroe yeah it did.

@strutheo What source? or is a particular interpretation needed?
The reason I ask:
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CF6&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
shows 2.6 inches

but elsewhere eg
https://www.weatherandclimate.info/monitor/?id=KNYC&month=2&year=2026
shows 4.36 Inches precipitation

Not sure if there is a reason for this. e.g. Perhaps the first excludes snow? If so the question says 'rain' not 'precipitation'.

Maybe above is an argument for first ref. OTOH Jan 2026 showed 2.7 inches there and it was resolved yes based on comment with link to https://www.cnyweather.com/wxrainsummary.php#:~:text=Table_title:%20Rainfall%20Summary%20(in)%20Table_content:%20header:%20%7C,%7C%20:%200.77%20%7C%20:%203.43%20%7C
though that currently only shows 1.04 inches for Feb.

If it can depend on the source, perhaps the relevant source should be stated?

bought Ṁ176 YES
bought Ṁ40 YES

@strutheo Aoba ?
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/aoba/news/295599/vaac-advisory-2026-32.html
Aoba Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: ERUPTION AT 20260220/1700Z LOW LEVEL ERUPTION.
RMK: SMALL PLUME VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEBCAM,
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY MET CLOUD. TOPS BASED ON ECMWF MODEL.

last eruption 2024?
https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/aoba-eruptions.html

@ElPepe Huh? In February?
Only on 7 in premier league this year

@ChristopherRandles

Should've added more context i didn't mean Tottenham I meant the San Antonio Spurs

bought Ṁ131 YES

@strutheo Claud Opus 4.6

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