Will something CRAZY happen? [Monthly Market]

Question

For each month, the option resolves YES if, during that month, there is a Google search term which spikes like crazy. This is determined based on the following method:

On Google Trends, pick "Worldwide" and "Web Search".

Pick a search term that you want to check for craziness.

Pick "google" as the search term to compare to.

Look at the end-of-day scores for "google" and [term]. The [term] : google ratio is the craziness score (C).

If on one of the days, C(term, day) > 0.5, and there exists a day in the previous 30 days such that C(term, day) / C(term, past_day) > 5, then this term is indeed CRAZY, and the market resolves YES.

Important exception: scheduled events which are fully expected to trend ahead of time do not count as crazy, even if they meet the craziness criteria. This includes things like:

Olympics

World Cup

Big movie releases

U.S. presidential elections

Some events in recent years which did meet the craziness criteria are:

COVID-19 pandemic

January 6 capitol riots

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Will Smith slapping Chris Rock

Death of Queen Elizabeth II

Israel-Gaza war

Trump assassination attempt

Biden dropping out of election

Iran-Israel war

Charlie Kirk assassination

Prior to any month, I may modify the criteria to preserve the intent of the market, if for example, "Google" is no longer a popular search term. Due to the partially subjective criteria, I am not betting in this market.

UPDATES:

Going forward, an event must end up having a Wikipedia article associated with it in order to qualify. The article must be about the same specific event as the Google Trends search term, according to my judgement. For example, the Wikipedia article on Will Smith is not specific enough to relate to the slap incident, but Chris Rock–Will Smith slapping incident is.

Once a search term becomes crazy, its history is "reset". That means for it to qualify again, its popularity must quintuple from since after it became crazy. That is, you cannot pick an old past_day to satisfy the quintupling requirement.

Resolutions

January: Capture of Nicolas Maduro

February: Israeli–United States strikes on Iran

March: None

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, October and September are most likely. See the market for live updates (171 traders, as of Oct 3, 2026).