Will somebody clone this question?
Will somebody clone this question?
5
110Ṁ701resolved Sep 9
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YES1H
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This resolves YES if somebody posts a market with the exact same title and description, except for the number at the bottom of the description, which must be incremented by 1. For the clone to be valid, the market must be created by someone who hasn't cloned this market before.
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It's an interesting idea, but I'm afraid it has a flaw preventing it from going viral: there is little incentive to vote NO, creation of the market costs mana (but I guess there is nothing preventing someone from marking it N/A as soon as it's closed) and there is only a very small chance that any of these markets will reach >= 10 traders
predictedYES 1y
@MrLuke255 Spicy idea: "will this have an even number of clones". Then anyone could flip the resolution by posting a new market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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