MANIFOLD
Ozempic will NOT be the leading GLP-1 agonist by total $ US sales by December 31, 2025
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resolved Feb 17
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YES
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@JFlavius1 I believe this resolves positively.

Eli Lily earnings:
https://investor.lilly.com/static-files/45a92498-43d0-4e2d-a4e6-a9131841cfd6
In pages 25 and 26 you can see that the sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound in Q4, the Ozempic competitors, add to 8.3 Billion USD and that their 13-Week Rolling Average Total Prescriptions Share of Market in Q4 is almost 50% and over 60%, respectively.
Here's also Novo Nordisk's earnings, with data on Ozempic US sales starting on page 95:

https://b-cdn.ipaper.io/iPaper/Files/6228d3a4-03b3-439e-babd-0f917be19870.pdf?Policy=eyJTdGF0ZW1lbnQiOlt7IlJlc291cmNlIjoiaHR0cHM6Ly9jZG4uaXBhcGVyLmlvL2lQYXBlci9GaWxlcy8qIiwiQ29uZGl0aW9uIjp7IkRhdGVMZXNzVGhhbiI6eyJBV1M6RXBvY2hUaW1lIjoxODAyMTQyMDAwfX19XX0_&Signature=fA64G1ruoiHdGnhACEBd4TSYVbcvRopRdgJM39o1gFpTaDNp5Xx1FB1zquMWx3eCMP2LoKu4omUG27~GDmwP1OgbvHGqIwIcCyQDNTvEL6k2aaKavlQv6-ew071H3OYotRf3OZQ3cAcxQvP-M-SnR9405YymEckp~ciUCHPd89s_&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIPGQN6BDBMBZ2LCA

Recent news:
"as of May 2024, Lilly began gaining market share while Novo started losing share. The trend continued until Lilly took leadership of the market about a year ago, and today, Lilly holds more than 60% of the market. That's compared to about 39% share for Novo."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novo-nordisk-stock-jumps-wegovy-175951201.html

"The split in guidance — despite similar headwinds — underscores the strength of Lilly’s position in the obesity and diabetes drug market, underpinned by its more effective injections and early foray into direct-to-consumer sales, among other factors. While Novo Nordisk effectively made the drugs mainstream, Lilly has since taken a clear edge in market share — and the forecasts show it will likely only extend its advantage this year."
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/04/eli-lilly-novo-nordisk-earnings-glp1-market.html

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