Will there be Kessler Syndrome before 2053?

Space•Kessler Syndrome

101

Ṁ961

Ṁ700

2053

43%

chance

ALL

This resolves YES if we have experienced Kessler syndrome by the end of 2052.

Some signs that Kessler syndome has occurred:

The collisions are cascading, i.e. it's not just debris from one collision that disables other satellites, but debris from those collisions must themselves result in debris that disables other satellites.
A short timescale: If the rate of destruction of satellites spikes over the course of a few days or weeks, I'm inclined to call that Kessler syndrome. If it goes up over the course of years, I'm inclined to say that the space community is simply more tolerant of accepting losses due to chance and a higher debris environment.
There is damage to space infrastructure: If 50% of satellites launched after 2020 cannot be deorbited before they are destroyed, or are forced to deorbit early, that suggests Kessler syndrome. If this number is more like 1%, then not.

Resolution criteria copied from here.

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Ironically, a defunct VEGA upper stage destined for a 2026 ESA mission to figure out removal of space debris was hit by space debris, creating more space debris.

ESA - Objects detected in the vicinity of ClearSpace-1 debris removal mission target

bought Ṁ50 of NO

I suspect that orbit is simply too economically productive for this to be risked.

Shouldn't that argument lead to the other conclusion? Financially-minded people tend to discount the long term, and companies trying to avoid Kessler syndrome by launching fewer satellites is a collective action problem.