Will there be a lunar particle accelerator by the beginning of 2050?
15
97
310
2050
21%
chance

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/moon-particle-collider-accelerator-physics

Doesn't have to encircle the moon, much smaller accelerators count too. They just need to be permanently attached to the moon. (i.e. an accelerator in a spaceship that temporarily lands on the moon does not count.)

Must have been built for research purposes.

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I think you should specify a minimum energy, otherwise an old-fashioned cathode ray tube would already count and I don't think that's what you have in mind.

@ErwinRossen Good point. Minimum energy or minimum size? Or maybe specify that it needs to be for research purposes?

@IsaacKing I think any of these three would help. It's hard to say upfront what to specify when looking almost 30 years into the future.

@ErwinRossen A low threshold could be if it can be carried at once or if it needs to be built in situ