Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?
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2070
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According to Forbes, or a suitible replacement if they stop being reliable.

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Is there a list of people who are worth at least 10b that you're using?

@NickAllen Forbes is fine.

predicts YES

@IsaacKing Given that it's "as of market creation", any chance you want to collect the authoritative list and dump it in here? There's a lot of grey area around families with undeclared assets that'd help clear up.

@NickAllen http://web.archive.org/web/20221121174642/https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#77ca4983d788

Elon Musk

Bernard Arnault & family

Gautam Adani

Jeff Bezos

Warren Buffett

Bill Gates

Larry Ellison

Mukesh Ambani

Carlos Slim Helu & family

Larry Page

Sergey Brin

Steve Ballmer

Michael Bloomberg

Francoise Bettencourt Meyers & family

Zhong Shanshan

Jim Walton

Rob Walton

Amancio Ortega

Alice Walton

Julia Koch & family

Charles Koch

David Thomson & family

Michael Dell

Zhang Yiming

Rodolphe Saadé & family

Phil Knight & family

Mark Zuckerberg

Jacqueline Mars

John Mars

François Pinault & family

Beate Heister & Karl Albrecht Jr. & family

Giovanni Ferrero

Li Ka-shing

Gerard Wertheimer

Alain Wertheimer

Ken Griffin

Dieter Schwarz

Ma Huateng

Len Blavatnik

Robin Zeng

Jeff Yass

Tadashi Yanai & family

Miriam Adelson & family

Klaus-Michael Kuehne

Lee Shau Kee

Stephen Schwarzman

Jim Simons

Gina Rinehart

MacKenzie Scott

Andrey Melnichenko

Vladimir Potanin

Shiv Nadar

Vladimir Lisin

Susanne Klatten

Leonid Mikhelson

Thomas Peterffy

Colin Zheng Huang

German Larrea Mota Velasco & family

R. Budi Hartono

Guillaume Pousaz

Takemitsu Takizaki

Masayoshi Son

Lukas Walton

Harold Hamm & family

Michael Hartono

Jack Ma

William Lei Ding

Cyrus Poonawalla

Stefan Quandt

He Xiangjian & family

Abigail Johnson

Vagit Alekperov

Gennady Timchenko

Wang Wei

Li Shufu

Leonard Lauder

Iris Fontbona & family

Ray Dalio

Thomas Frist Jr & family

Wang Chuanfu

David Tepper

Qin Yinglin

Alexey Mordashov

John Menard Jr

Radhakishan Damani

Carl Icahn

Wang Wenyin

Steve Cohen

Donald Bren

Changpeng Zhao

Theo Albrecht Jr & family

Emmanuel Besnier

Rupert Murdoch & family

Savitri Jindal & family

Daniel Gilbert

Andrew Forrest

Robert Pera

Eric Schmidt

Li Xiting

Dilip Shanghvi

Lakshmi Mittal

Renata Kellnerova & family

Jerry Jones

Sunil Mittal & family

Jorge Paulo Lemann & family

Michael Platt

Kumar Birla

Stefan Persson

Pavel Durov

Charlene de Carvalho-Heineken & family

Robert & Philip Ng

Hinduja brothers

David Green & family

Xu Hang

Peter Woo

Pang Kang

Alisher Usmanov

Uday Kotak

Jensen Huang

Gianluigi & Rafaela Aponte

George Kaiser

Eyal Ofer

Hank & Doug Meijer

Reinhold Wuerth & family

Huang Shilin

Wei Jianjun & family

Joseph Lau

James Ratcliffe

Lu Xiangyang

Mikhail Fridman

Jan Koum

Andreas Struengmann & family

Thomas Struengmann & family

Viatcheslav Kantor

Low Tuck Kwong

Stanley Kroenke

Diane Hendricks

Jiang Rensheng & family

Kwong Siu-hing

Aliko Dangote

Goh Cheng Liang

Suleiman Kerimov & family

Laurene Powell Jobs & family

Liu Hanyuan

Jeffery Hildebrand

Lui Che Woo

Sarath Ratanavadi

Chen Bang

Shahid Khan

Anders Holch Povlsen

Charoen Sirivadhanabhakdi

Stephen Ross

Charles Schwab

Andrei Guriev & family

John Fredriksen

Richard Liu

Mikhail Prokhorov

Israel Englander

Jim Pattison

Dhanin Chearavanont

Christy Walton

Donald Newhouse

Ricardo Salinas Pliego & family

Philip Anschutz

Robert Kraft

Viktor Rashnikov

Marcel Herrmann Telles

Andreas von Bechtolsheim & family

Andrew Beal

Luo Liguo & family

Michael Rubin

Robert Kuok

Harry Triguboff

Dang Yanbao

Graeme Hart

Chris Xu

Autry Stephens

bought Ṁ5 of YES

Hmmm. This seems to be a question about

(1) social mobility (how often not-extremely-rich people become extremely rich)

and

(2) inflation (how long it will take before the richest person reaches $1T)

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