Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ1kṀ3.7k

2035

56%

chance

ALL

Must be known with high confidence, not just speculation or unfounded claims.

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arbitrage https://manifold.markets/wilsonkime/will-any-of-the-following-be-confir

predictedYES

If a language model-based analysis shows the white-paper matches a given individual (or individuals) style with high probability, would that be sufficient to resolve?

@JacobPfau Absolutely not. There have already been myriad text analyzes done by much more tailored approaches than "shove it in a hyped-up language model"

predictedYES

@IsaacKing would be interested to hear the official resolution line on this

Surprised this is so high. There's a lot of evidence pointing to him being the now-deceased Hal Finney. Unless he passed on his secret key(s) to his wife, there will be no proving that one way or the other.

predictedYES

@jonsimon Hal Finney was cryonically preserved, so that's not the end of it. Not likely to happen that soon though.

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