
If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
If the identity of Satoshi is ever definitively proven, who will it be?
12
100Ṁ23510000
3%
Hal Finney
3%
Dorian Nakamoto
3%
Len Sassaman
3%
Wei Dai
3%
Adam Back
3%
Paul Le Roux
0.7%
Craig Wright
17%
Nick Szabo
3%
Multiple People
60%
Other
If Satoshi is definitively proven to be one of the people listed, that person will resolve yes. Otherwise, that person will resolve no. If Satoshi is revealed to be multiple people, that option will resolve yes, and all the others - even if those others were part of the group - will resolve no. If Satoshi got occasional help, or occasionally gave another person account access, that will not be sufficient for other to resolve to yes. However, constant writing code together and constant and continuous sharing of account credentials will count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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