Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(5) be known before 2030?
Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(5) be known before 2030?
48
1kṀ18kresolved Jul 6
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ1,440 | |
2 | Ṁ241 | |
3 | Ṁ76 | |
4 | Ṁ70 | |
5 | Ṁ40 |
People are also trading
Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(6) be known before 2075?
44% chance
Will the fifth Busy Beaver still be thought to be proven to be 47,176,870 at the end of 2025?
98% chance
Is it possible to prove which Busy Beaver number is the highest that can be determined?
37% chance
Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?
Will the BB(7) machine be known by 2100?
22% chance
Will the BB(6) machine be known by 2075?
44% chance
Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?
45% chance
Will go be solved before 2040?
6% chance
Will the [5, 5] Ramsey number by known before 2040?
71% chance
Will any of the Ramsey numbers R(5,5), R(4,6), or R(3,10) be known before 2040?
85% chance
Sort by:
It's close. The Metaculus one is for 2040 instead of 2030, and the standards for resolution are likely slightly different, but the core question is the same.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the exact value of Busy Beaver(6) be known before 2075?
44% chance
Will the fifth Busy Beaver still be thought to be proven to be 47,176,870 at the end of 2025?
98% chance
Is it possible to prove which Busy Beaver number is the highest that can be determined?
37% chance
Which Busy Beaver machine will be proven next?
Will the BB(7) machine be known by 2100?
22% chance
Will the BB(6) machine be known by 2075?
44% chance
Is the 20th Busy Beaver number independent of set theory?
45% chance
Will go be solved before 2040?
6% chance
Will the [5, 5] Ramsey number by known before 2040?
71% chance
Will any of the Ramsey numbers R(5,5), R(4,6), or R(3,10) be known before 2040?
85% chance