Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting at the end of 2024?
Plus
41
Ṁ2587Jan 1
97%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
@JonathanRay Personally, I like both platforms and there are still several things that Metaculus does better, which Manifold could potentially try to subsume but they're pretty hard!
@JonathanRay Even if it does, websites are sticky and usually slow to die (server costs aren't much if you just stop putting active new development work in)
Related questions
Related questions
Will there be substantive issues with Safe AI’s claim to forecast better than the Metaculus crowd, found before 2025?
77% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2035?
38% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2030?
82% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2026?
90% chance
Will Metaculus still exist and have active forecasting throughout 2025?
93% chance
Will Metaculus be around in 10 years?
60% chance
Will pre-2026 AI out-forecast the Metaculus community?
39% chance
Metaculus user experience will be basically the same in 2024
41% chance
Will Metaculus predict [Human Extinction 2100] as 2%+ at the New Year?
Will INFER still exist and have active forecasting at the end of 2024?
76% chance