Will Manifold get a third community by the end of 2023?
resolved Jan 3

Manifold started with the rationality and forecasting community at the beginning of 2022. Near the end of 2022, we were joined by the Destiny community. Will we get a third community by the end of 2023?

This resolves very subjectivly, based on whether I see a lot of markets and comments being made by people who are clearly neither rationalists/forecasters or Destiny.ggers. In order to count, it must be a large enough community to be comparable to the other two in terms of impact on Manifold; it can't just be one small group of 10 people joining and making markets for each other.

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predicted NO

Any arguments for YES? I don't look at every new market, so it's possible I miss a community. Would need to be big though.

Incoming wave of Aella simps. The 3rd "community" will be hundreds of horny men crabbing each other desperately hoping senpai notices them. (Embed below)

@Mira 100% this 😐

@Mira I see Manifold found a new way to make people buy absurd amounts of Mana lol

@Mira Exactly what a dating site needs for success!

@dgga 😅😅

predicted NO

@Mira This could count, but only if they're engaging with the broader site by leaving comments and making markets. Simply betting on Aella's market is not sufficient.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

Seems very unlikely at this point. Roughly 2 months left, and Manifold still only has two communities thoughout its entire existence. And the rats/EAs were always going to be interested anyways, it's a prediction market, they love those things.

Would manifold.love-rs be a new community?

predicted NO

@ian If it catches on outside the rationalist community and they start betting on Manifold, yep.

bought Ṁ200 of NO

@JosephNoonan Did your survey include any questions that could tell rationalists apart from the general AI research community?

@IsaacKing I had the question asking whether people are part of the rationalist movement, but almost everyone had at least some degree of overlap with it.

I also had a few that were about people's opinions on tech and specifically tech-based questions on Manifold.

There was a third question that was free response asking about the alignment problem, but I don't think that one could distinguish between groups.

I'm not sure exactly what you're looking for, though. Are you saying that if these two groups are distinct enough, it would count as a YES resolution with the AI research community as the third community?

predicted NO

Are you saying that if these two groups are distinct enough, it would count as a YES resolution with the AI research community as the third community?

Yes. At present it doesn't look to me like they are though.

@IsaacKing If anything, the most useful result from my survey for this market might be the implication that Destiny.ggers aren't as big a group on Manifold as we thought. This was the distribution of what people thought of Destiny's YouTube channel, with the purple bar being "Haven't watched".

predicted NO

@JosephNoonan I think you may be confusing "Manifold users" with "people who chose to take my survey".

@IsaacKing This is true. I did mention that on my blog post as one possible reason for the result. But I did get a lot of people to take it, and I feel like I don't see very much Destiny-related stuff on Manifold anymore. I'm not sure if it's because Destiny fans are less active now than they were before, or if Manifold has just done more to keep Destiny stuff separate from the rest of the site.

I feel like one piece should count at this point

predicted NO

@ShadowyZephyr I can remember seeing 0 one piece markets on Manifold, ever.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@IsaacKing There are some pretty big markets in the "One Piece Stocks" category: https://manifold.markets/browse?topic=one-piece-stocks&t=&q=

But none of them have as many traders as the biggest Destiny stocks, so I don't think they're as big as the other two communities.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

https://manifold.markets/group/one-piece-stocks This is definitely getting there.

predicted NO

@SirSalty Given the top creator is memestiny, I suspect it's not a distinct community.

I wonder if math/Proof School counts... I did stumble on manifold via the rationalist-etc community, but I recognize more people from mathy circles

I'm not at Proof school, but given how much I've seen from it, it seems reasonable to call it a community of its own on manifold. MTG might also count, but that seems like more of an interior group rather than a reason people join.