Will Manifold get a third community by the end of 2023?
closes Jan 1

Manifold started with the rationality and forecasting community at the beginning of 2022. Near the end of 2022, we were joined by the Destiny community. Will we get a third community by the end of 2023?

This resolves very subjectivly, based on whether I see a lot of markets and comments being made by people who are clearly neither rationalists/forecasters or Destiny.ggers. In order to count, it must be a large enough community to be comparable to the other two in terms of impact on Manifold; it can't just be one small group of 10 people joining and making markets for each other.

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ShadowyZephyr avatar

I feel like one piece should count at this point

SirSalty avatar
David Cheebought Ṁ60 of YES

https://manifold.markets/group/one-piece-stocks This is definitely getting there.

Heliscone avatar

I wonder if math/Proof School counts... I did stumble on manifold via the rationalist-etc community, but I recognize more people from mathy circles

1 reply
TobyBW avatar

I'm not at Proof school, but given how much I've seen from it, it seems reasonable to call it a community of its own on manifold. MTG might also count, but that seems like more of an interior group rather than a reason people join.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ150 of YES
10 replies
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ18 of YES

@firstuserhere Manifold has made a section for Top Communities where they identify 5 so far. I'd say destiny, EA/Rationality, and AI community are definitely to be counted. I'd say CGP gray one isnt there yet, and fun imo should be counted, because well, some people like that and that's their appeal for manifold.

IsaacKing avatar

@firstuserhere I haven't seen much of an impact from them.

firstuserhere avatar

@IsaacKing which one? I'd say markets about AI are definitely a big topic on manifold.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicts NO

@firstuserhere AI is an offshoot of rationality.

Devnagiri avatar

@IsaacKing lol wut m8?

Ai is an offshoot of rationality??? Ai has to do little with rationality. Its a technical field grown independently of rationality which is a niche community. On lesswrong it may overlap but on manifold, there's no way ai is a subfield of rationality of all things dude. If you said computer science I'd not even come in here but rationality? Nahh dude

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicts NO

@swiftielover Do you think this poll result is representative of the general opinion across the worldwide AI community?

Devnagiri avatar
Devnagiribought Ṁ34 of YES
Devnagiri avatar
Devnagiripredicts YES

@swiftielover oh wait you say 2075. Yes then. Short timelines are what separate the two communities

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicts NO

@swiftielover Hmm, interesting. I got the impression the Manifold AI markets were coming entirely from LW/AF type people.

Have a suggestion for a question I could ask that would clearly separate them into two piles? Probability of GAI before 2035?

Devnagiri avatar
Devnagiripredicts YES

@IsaacKing Okay I will think of one

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ50 of YES

CGP Grey community? We are getting new users and markets at least. I guess time will tell

3 replies
IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicts NO

@DylanSlagh Certainly a possibility.

NathanpmYoung avatar
Nathan Youngpredicts YES

@IsaacKing Feels like I'd want the 3rd community to have a distinct different vibe? Like makeupp posters, or a certain tiktok star. I feel like CGP grey would have to go in in a big way

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicts NO

@NathanpmYoung Agreed. They did make an account though, and have started creating markets.

MaxBittker avatar
Max Bittkerbought Ṁ100 of YES

I think that manifold is very well suited to sports & esports communities, because they have frequent opportunities for interesting markets.

1 reply
IsaacKing avatar
Isaacpredicts NO

@MaxBittker Yeah, but they may have legal concerns over the gambling aspect.

johnleoks avatar
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