Will Manifold be the subject of external controversy involving at least 10,000 people by the end of 2023?
Basic
40
Ṁ3696
resolved Apr 15
Resolved
NO

Some examples that could resolve this to YES:

  • A Twitter thread that goes viral about how inappropriate a certain market question is.

  • A Twitter thread that goes viral about how Manifold as a platform allows people to incentivize assassinations or other bad actions.

  • A strongly critical news article on Manifold that achieves significant community spread.

A calm, well-reasoned discussion about the pros and cons of Manifold doesn't count. There must be outrage and anger in order for this to resolve YES.

Markets on various sizes of controversy:

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

⚠Unreceptive to pings

📢Resolved to NO; If this is incorrect, the creator can correct since they are a mod


@IsaacKing Can you resolve the 3 remaining "Controversy" markets , please?

this is kind of a difficult one. The market has no interest for me in terms of predictive powers. The market itself has nothing that triggers moderation in terms of content.

at 22%, I could achieve a decent payout by seeding a twitter outrage. There's enough content to do so (in IK's previous markets). I'm confident enough in twitter SEO to do so. Such action would get me a payout, but would either damage this website, and/or trigger an influx of people attracted by outrage (a different kind of damage for a cerebral prediction site).

Proposing such a dilemma to the site owners and requesting a minor payout to not trigger the outrage is akin to blackmail/ransom, and they can't payout, as they'd have to do the same to every confident blackmailer.

So this question is actually, "Do I want to damage this website in return for fake internet points?, but this website means nothing without fake internet points"

@CromlynGames You could win about $2 of real-world money in this market by doing so. If someone offered to Paypal you $2 in return for such a thing, would you accept? If not, then your desire to do so is likely not just due to the financial incentive the market provides.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules