This market is about prediction #5 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction is:

GPT-4 by itself won’t be a general purpose artificial general intelligence capable of taking on arbitrary tasks. Without external aids it won’t be able beat Meta’s Cicero in Diplomacy; it won’t be able to drive a car reliably; it won’t be able to reliably guide a robot like Optimus to be anything like as versatile as Rosie the Robot. It will remain turbocharged pastiche generator, and a fine tool for brainstorming, and for first drafts, but not trustworthy general intelligence.