This market is about prediction #3 from Gary Marcus's predictions for GPT-4. It resolves based on my interpretation of whether that prediction has been met, strongly taking into account arguments from other traders in this market. The full prediction is:

Fluent hallucinations will still be common, and easily induced, continuing—and in in fact escalating— the risk of large language models being used as a tool for creating plausible-sounding yet false misinformation. Guardrails (a la ChatGPT) may be in place, but the guardrails will teeter between being too weak (beaten by “jailbreaks”) and too strong (rejecting some perfectly reasonable requests). Bad actors will in any case eventually be able to replicate much of GPT-4, dispensing with whatever guardrails are in place, and using knock-off systems to create whatever narratives they wish.