Will anyone profit by at least M$10,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
Mini
10
แน€1.8k
resolved Dec 25
Resolved
YES

I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$10,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.

Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.

Simlar markets on various profit values:

Get แน€600 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€26
2แน€10
3แน€7
4แน€7
5แน€1
Sort by:
predicted YES

This has already happened. Are you including those instances in this market? (I think they should count as currently worded)

predicted YES

@jack From the description:

Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.

@IsaacKing Ah sorry missed that

predicted YES

Does it have to be profit after market is resolved, or does unrealized profit also count?

predicted YES

@Yev It has to be profit that shows up in the "top traders" display on the market page.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing That's unfortunate. Pepe had ~521k unrealized profit on the 1st Biden market just before it resolved N/A. ๐Ÿ˜‚

@a has already made 13k, 16k, and 43k(!) profits. @jack has 15k. @MichaelWheatley has 11k. @AmmonLam has 11k and 20k. Those are just the ones I found in the first ~5 minutes. Surely it'll happen again.

@Yev Mr. Stone has that 22k we were just discussing on the Discord

@Yev Do you have links to those markets handy?

predicted YES

@IsaacKing visit @a's page and sort by profit.

Also, there are bugs in the portfolio page where it's not showing all the markets sorted by profit properly.

The highest profit I'm aware of is my 69k on https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu

@jack that's insane. How were you so sure that twitter didnt need to use hardcore litigation?

@AmmonLam I made the profits mostly from market making, and the vast majority of it was a windfall profit from my limit orders filling a big Spindle trade. See my comments at https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-a-delaware-judge-order-elon-mu#XAtIS2WyJD8CyZ6evxMG. I also was predicting that they'd settle before the court issued a ruling - which turned out to be correct.