Will anyone profit by at least M$50,000 on a single market by the end of 2023?
Mini
6
แน€6.3k
resolved Dec 25
Resolved
YES

I will ignore bets placed to manipulate this market, such as someone using an alt account to bet against themselves and have one of the accounts "profit" by M$50,000. I want this to be about "real" profit on "real" markets.

Only profit reflected on Manifold counts, not any private manalink deals. Any markets that resolved prior to this market being created don't count.

Simlar markets on various profit values:

Get แน€600 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€42
2แน€28
3แน€7
4แน€6
5แน€0
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Makes me wonder what the rate of M$ inflation is...

@brp It's currently pegged to USD, so it's currently at ~7% a year.

@Yev I guess I mean total M$ supply, as that sets how much money sloshes around in the markets. It would increase as users grab their bonuses (daily streak, market investor, new user affiliate rewards) and as they buy new M$, and decrease as people donate M$ to charity or forget to resolve closed markets.

@brp Total active mana supply per active user would be the more relevant measure