Will any real-money prediction market let anyone create a market on anything before the end of 2024?

Any random guy off the street must be able to sign up and create a market. A bit of basic KYC is fine, but anything particularly exclusive is not.

If a few specific types of markets (assassination, war, etc.) are banned that's fine, it just needs to be possible to create questions on the vast majority of things, like "will this date go well".

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Does the current state of manifold count as a real-money market to you? Or would it only count if arbitrary users can make their market a prize point market?

@josh Depends on how liberal they are turning markets into prize point ones. If it's just "you have to write comprehensive resolution criteria", that'll count. If it's "we only promote markets on this small list of topics", that won't.

I like how this market demonstrates how confusing the word "any" is.

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