Will any of the events in the ACX 2023 prediction contest occur before February 1st?
14%
chance

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest

If any of the events predicted happen by January 10 or February 1, I’ll remove them from the relevant competition, so that people aren’t penalized too heavily for getting their responses in early.

Will this happen?

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StevenK avatar
Steven
bought Ṁ50 of NO

Are you resolving this based on Scott's judgment?

All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions about the period 1/1/2023 - 1/1/2024, unless otherwise specified.

A lot of the questions are about the state of the world at the end of the year, so it seems like it's impossible for them to already have happened at the end of January. There are some that refer to irreversible events like "Will Trump tweet" and "Will GPT-4 be released", but I don't see how they add up to more than say 10% in the next few days.

StevenK avatar
Steven
is predicting NO at 26%

@StevenK By my count, relevant questions are 7-12, 19-21, 23, 24, 26, 32, 36, 39-41, 44, 47-50.

IsaacKing avatar

@StevenK Yes, if Scott has to remove any from the contest, this market resolves YES.

If it seems Scott has taken leave of his senses and does something wildly different from what he said he'd do, I may resolve this market differently, but by default, yeah, Scott's judgement.