https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest
If any of the events predicted happen by January 10 or February 1, I’ll remove them from the relevant competition, so that people aren’t penalized too heavily for getting their responses in early.
Will this happen?
Edit as of April: There appears to be ambiguity over whether one of the predictions came to pass before February, as mentioned in this comment. So this market is now about whether Scott will decide to exclude that question from the results.
1,000
3.00https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/who-predicted-2023
You can see in the screenshot of the Google doc in section 4 (and the Metaculus question) that Scott is considering the China Covid cases question to have resolved NO.
How does this resolve if Scott decides to exclude the question from the results but doesn't claim that it already came to pass before February? "At least 25 million cases according to OWID" was false at the end of January, right? I know Isaac said "if Scott has to remove any from the contest" in the comments, but does that implicitly mean "if Scott has to remove any from the contest because he judges they occurred before February" or "if Scott has to remove any from the contest for more general reasons of foreknowledge"? Resolving YES on this question wasn't in my hypothesis space, but maybe that's my own fault.
Are you resolving this based on Scott's judgment?
All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions about the period 1/1/2023 - 1/1/2024, unless otherwise specified.
A lot of the questions are about the state of the world at the end of the year, so it seems like it's impossible for them to already have happened at the end of January. There are some that refer to irreversible events like "Will Trump tweet" and "Will GPT-4 be released", but I don't see how they add up to more than say 10% in the next few days.
@StevenK By my count, relevant questions are 7-12, 19-21, 23, 24, 26, 32, 36, 39-41, 44, 47-50.
@StevenK Yes, if Scott has to remove any from the contest, this market resolves YES.
If it seems Scott has taken leave of his senses and does something wildly different from what he said he'd do, I may resolve this market differently, but by default, yeah, Scott's judgement.