Will any of the events in the ACX 2023 prediction contest occur before February 1st?
50
381
970
Mar 1
62%
chance

https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest

If any of the events predicted happen by January 10 or February 1, I’ll remove them from the relevant competition, so that people aren’t penalized too heavily for getting their responses in early.

Will this happen?

Edit as of April: There appears to be ambiguity over whether one of the predictions came to pass before February, as mentioned in this comment. So this market is now about whether Scott will decide to exclude that question from the results.

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Has Scott done a retrospective on these predictions yet? I haven't seen one.

predicts NO

How does this resolve if Scott decides to exclude the question from the results but doesn't claim that it already came to pass before February? "At least 25 million cases according to OWID" was false at the end of January, right? I know Isaac said "if Scott has to remove any from the contest" in the comments, but does that implicitly mean "if Scott has to remove any from the contest because he judges they occurred before February" or "if Scott has to remove any from the contest for more general reasons of foreknowledge"? Resolving YES on this question wasn't in my hypothesis space, but maybe that's my own fault.

Reopening this market because it has now become "Will Scott exclude the China Covid prediction from the final results", which seems like a meaningful thing to predict about.

Any news on whether Scott has removed that question from the contest? I haven't seen anything in an ACX post, but it could have been mentioned elsewhere.

Also, since it appears the correct resolution to this market is still unknown, should I reopen it?

Confirming we still need to wait on this? I haven't seen anything yet.

It actually did happen

China officially reported 25mm cases by the end of January

though since the data has only been reported to WHO and not filtered down to OWID maybe/probably (hopefully!!) not...

@BTE Neat! Guess we'll wait to see whether Scott actually removes that question from the contest.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Are you resolving this based on Scott's judgment?

All point questions are about the state of the world midnight on 1/1/2024, and all duration questions about the period 1/1/2023 - 1/1/2024, unless otherwise specified.

A lot of the questions are about the state of the world at the end of the year, so it seems like it's impossible for them to already have happened at the end of January. There are some that refer to irreversible events like "Will Trump tweet" and "Will GPT-4 be released", but I don't see how they add up to more than say 10% in the next few days.

predicts NO

@StevenK By my count, relevant questions are 7-12, 19-21, 23, 24, 26, 32, 36, 39-41, 44, 47-50.

@StevenK Yes, if Scott has to remove any from the contest, this market resolves YES.

If it seems Scott has taken leave of his senses and does something wildly different from what he said he'd do, I may resolve this market differently, but by default, yeah, Scott's judgement.

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