https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/2023-prediction-contest

If any of the events predicted happen by January 10 or February 1, I’ll remove them from the relevant competition, so that people aren’t penalized too heavily for getting their responses in early.

Will this happen?

Edit as of April: There appears to be ambiguity over whether one of the predictions came to pass before February, as mentioned in this comment. So this market is now about whether Scott will decide to exclude that question from the results.