Will any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
6
130Ṁ3832050
10%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Wikipedia says there has never been more than 7 people per year reported killed by volcanic eruptions. 26*7= under 182 people out of a global population of billions
@oh In 2021, over 100 people died in volcanic eruptions. In 1985, over 20,000 died in one volcanic eruption.
@NicoDelon Hard to come up with a reliable figure for the average number of deaths per year but it's clearly above seven.
@NicoDelon And if anyone wants to geek out: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13617-017-0067-4
Related questions
Related questions
Will an active Manifold user be indicted for murder before the end of 2030?
27% chance
Will a Manifold user be convicted of murder by 2030?
95% chance
Will any Manifold User with a trustworthyish badge be charged with murder by 2030?
3% chance
Will humans trigger a volcanic eruption by 2100?
40% chance
Will Manifold still be functioning by 2030?
82% chance
How will Manifold die?
Will any Manifold users be discovered to be in cawhoots before the end of 2030?
10% chance
Will Manifold be subject to a DDoS attack before the end of 2025?
70% chance
Will Manifold still be around in 2035? (resolves N/A at the end of 2026)
31% chance
Will a supervolcano eruption happen by 2100?
8% chance