Will any car drive itself from the Empire State Building to the Golden Gate Bridge before April 2028?
➕
Plus
34
Ṁ1362
2028
30%
chance

The entire drive must be done autonomously, under its own propulsion, with no human input. Humans can help with any parts other than driving and navigation, such as fueling/charging the car and performing repairs. The original route can be chosen by a human, but after that, any updates to the route due to road closures, heavy traffic, running out of gas and needing to go to a gas station, etc. must be decided on by the car.

The car must not break any traffic laws that could reasonably get a human driver in trouble. (e.g. if it sees an object in the road and chooses to swerve into an empty opposite-direction lane in order to avoid the object, that's fine.) Other road-related laws that don't have to do with driving capablity, such as an expired registration, won't disqualify the car. It also must not engage in any behavior that is legal but still highly unsafe, such as running into a pedestrian who's in the road illegally without a crosswalk.

If's fine if there's a human physically inside the car, they just can't provide any control inputs. If a human driver has to take over even once, such as to avoid an unexpected dangerous situation or help the car navigate through a complicated construction area, that disqualifies the trip.

Remote human driving, such as a human in an office looking at sensor feeds and driving the car from there, does not count as "self-driving".

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

Here's a more general version that doesn't specify exact starting and ending points.

Is there any indication that someone will attempt this specific route? I expect the capability will exist, but this seems like a remarkably specific set of requirements and maybe no one will actually do it.

@EvanDaniel Not in particular. The cannonball run is similar (though it goes to Los Angeles rather than San Francisco). Maybe this could become a standard challenge in self-driving cars.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing The Cannonball route does seem like a more likely target; there's a lot of history there and it seems like it might make a good PR stunt.

@EvanDaniel Some have used slightly different routes:

In April 2015, the first coast-to-coast autonomous record was set by employees of Delphi. Delphi engineers covered 3,400 miles, San Francisco to New York City, over a span of nine days.

predicts YES

Does this include refueling/recharging?

@hekatonsure It needs to do the driving portion of pulling into the gas station and parking itself at an appropriate distance from the pump/charger. Any non-driving tasks, such as inserting the nozzle/charger into the port on the car, can be performed by a human.

Oh, and the car also needs to be the one that decides when it needs to refuel and where to go to accomplish that.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules