Full question:

AGI will not be built with an architecture 1 or 0 advances beyond transformers, where an “advance” is a singular technology no larger than moving from pre-transformers to transformers (e.g., from pairwise connections to a shared workspace). This scenario is similar to the idea of “prosaic AGI.”

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)