One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Clarifications:

Causal attribution in such cases is imprecise. I mean something like: If A and B both seem to be necessary conditions for C, and a 30% reduction in A is twice as likely to make C fail to occur as a 10% reduction in B, then C is twice as attributable to A as to B.