Will a very large-scale AI alignment project be funded before 2025?
18
76
Ṁ1.3KṀ330
2025
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The focus must be on alignment over capabilites. A dual focus is acceptible as long as there's a serious committment to alignment.
The total amount of funding must be at least $10 billion.
In the event of gradual funding over time, this market can resolve YES if the project ever meets all three criteria at any point in its life.
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Will a large-scale, Eliezer-Yudkowsky-approved AI alignment project be funded before 2025?
8% chance
Will any other large AI organization have a big public leadership conflict before 2028?
68% chance
Will deceptive misalignment occur in any AI system before 2030?
67% chance
Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?
81% chance
Will National Governments Collectively Give More than $100M a year in funding for AI Alignment by 2030?
81% chance
Will any lawmakers use AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?
21% chance
Will the Gates Foundation give more than $100mn to AI Safety work before 2025?
26% chance
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
18% chance
Will a major geoengineering project be approved and implemented before 2025?
11% chance
Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?
7% chance