Who are the most trusted market creators on Manifold?
Who are the most trusted market creators on Manifold?
47
3.9kṀ9859
resolved Oct 20
3%32%
Jack
3%7%
Duncan
3%7%
Tetraspace
3%7%
BTE
3%7%
3%3%
@LivInTheLookingGlass, a.k.a Olivia
3%3%
N.C. Young @NcyRocks
3%3%
JAAM (@egroj)
3%2%
MattP
3%2%
@dglid, a.k.a David Glidden
3%1.9%
@JoyVoid, joy_void_joy
3%1.7%
Martin Randall
3%1.0%
Conflux
3%1.0%
Gurkenglas
3%0.6%
Sinclair
3%0.3%
JoshuaB
3%0.1%

Each answer on this market should be the name of a user who creates a significant number of public markets.

When this market closes, I will select to win all answers that are for a user who has resolved no markets dishonorably in between this market's creation and close. (Any markets resolved dishonorably prior to this market's creation don't count.) The dishonorable market must also have closed after this market began.

For the purposes of determining what counts as a dishonorable resolution, I will go by @MattP's judgement, unless there's a community consensus that I should not do so. (For example if there are concerns that @MattP resolved one of their own markets incorrectly, or @MattP has become inactive.) In that case I'll use my judgement instead. (If there's a community consensus I'll defer to that; my personal judgement will only enter into it if the community can't agree.)

A late resolution doesn't count as dishonorable until the creator has been reminded at least once after the market closed and still hasn't resolved the market. If a market meets that criterion, it counts as a "dishonorable resolution", even though it never actually resolved. (e.g. if someone just leaves their market open forever and never resolves it, that's still dishonorable for the purposes of my market.)

Any answer that isn't the name of a user is invalid. If the same user is submitted multiple times, only the one that was added first is valid. Any user who was not activly creating markets at some point in between this market's open and close dates is also invalid. (Otherwise it's easy to win M$ by betting on a user who never creates any markets.)

I'm also making myself an invalid answer, because if I didn't, selection bias would lead to my trustworthiness being overrepresented. (People who don't trust me won't want to bet in my markets, so the only people betting here are ones who do trust me.)

This market structure makes it hard to bet against a particular user if you don't trust them. I see that as a feature rather than a bug; it means there's little incentive for creators to resolve their own markets dishonorably, since they can't turn a profit here by doing so.

If any market creator wants to convince others of their trustworthiness, they can stake M$ on themselves here to prove it. (Effectively putting up collateral against a dishonorable resolution.)

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