Which of the following AI pundits will publicly recant the belief they're known for holding before 2028?
6
220Ṁ1902028
55%
Gary Marcus, believing that pure neural networks are not capable of general intelligence
50%
Geoffrey Hinton, believing that near-term existential risk is a serious concern
30%
Yann LeCun, believing that existential risk is very low
29%
Eliezer Yudkowsky, believing that existential risk is very high
In order to count, they must make a public statement to the effect of "I have changed my mind; I used to believe X, now I believe Y, which is substantively different from X".
Please suggest more people for me to add.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
8% chance
Which famous people will name AI as an existential threat before 2026? [Mega Independent]
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2028?
42% chance
Will any rationalist, effective altruist, or AI safety researcher go on the Joe Rogan Experience before 2026?
69% chance
Will any candidate accuse their competitor of "being an AI" in the 2028 election?
30% chance
Will anyone very famous claim to have made an important life decision because an AI suggested it by the end of 2024?
15% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
67% chance
Will any other large AI organization have a big public leadership conflict before 2028?
68% chance
Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?
8% chance
Will an anti AI Cult exists by 2027?
77% chance