🏅 Top traders

Normally I verify market results myself rather than resolving to what the market probability seems to indicate, but I really don't feel like doing all that addition (or writing a script to do it for me), so I'll trust the market on this one. If anyone is concerned this result is incorrect, let me know your reasons and I'll re-resolve if necessary.

@IsaacKing resolves to spicy alchemists cohort

Hyperactive dreamers had a run yesterday at taking the spot but it fell back down... Maybe someone from that league can say what that was about.

As some of you might know, I speculated that the people in Spicy Alchemists might be sports bettors (speaking for myself as well). Tomorrow is another F1 race and we have the MLB world series on top of that... this provides even more opportunities, and given their record should make it difficult for them to be dethroned (unless some large individual bets goes sideways, in which case it might sense to hedge!).

And then there's https://manifold.markets/leagues/6/platinum/innovative-ogres in Platinum, where @Domer has 100K profit all by himself!

Leagues

See the top-ranking users this season in each league.

What the heck happened to Unerring Beasts?

@BenjaminShindel https://manifold.markets/dittopoop/will-forsen-beat-xqcs-minecraft-rec-18a2c84f03f8

Edit: @BryanWade lost 9k in that market

Fun question for next month could be: "Who will have the most mana in the toughest division?"

I am from Hyperactive Dreamers and I am currently at 8.5k October profit. Probably aiming at about 15k by month end. However, I think whether or not my league cohort would rise up would depend mostly on firstuserhere who has huge stakes in many markets that fluctuate greatly in nominal values depending on the prices. Judging from what happened in September and so far in October, the fluctuations could be as large as 10-20k, or even more. Not that I am very privy to whale economy, lol.

OK it should be working so long as the bearer key doesn't expire. May have to hit reload to see the updated image.

Edit: Updated chart format.

Now shows ranking number in legend.

It should now always plot markers with cohorts with current higher rankings on top of those lower rankings (not at the time of the point).

It still updates every hour (roughly on the hour), but now it only shows markers at minor ticks every 6 hours, with major ticks&labels at every start of day (Pacific Time which should be the server time).

This should need no further adjustment.

Updated stats (automatically by me)

@parhizj this is impressive thank you! I didn't even know that kind of live-updating image was possible (not a computer person)

@BenjaminShindel It's definitely not a feature of manifold. I am just directly overwriting the stored firebase image using the upload image backend using some python scripts.

Since I started the chart a week ago, Spicy Alchemists have increased the gap between 1st and 2nd by ~ 10 k. The month is already half over now.

Ran out of disk space and corrupted the history file 😦 , the chart will start fresh from the next hour. Here is the old chart for reference before the new one above gets overwritten:

@parhizj make sure this process is stopped now and isn't eating your compute!

I feel like these types of questions deserve their own stat page. If no one does it I’ll see what I can put together on my GitHub page. (Test ignore2)

I'd love to see that!