This market has a 0.001% chance of resolving to YES. Otherwise it resolves N/A. | Manifold Markets

This market has a 0.001% chance of resolving to YES. Otherwise it resolves N/A.

16

closes 2024

71%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If anyone asks me to use a randomization method that others can verify, I will be happy to do so. Otherwise I won't bother.

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Michael Latowickibought Ṁ30 of NO

please correct me if I'm wrong, but this market is effectively guaranteed to resolve NA. So the only realistic way to make money here is to predict what other people would do and to front-run them. Are all the people buying YES assuming that other people would buy YES? This is just a pyramid scheme, right?

@MichaelLatowicki "pyramid scheme" is such an ugly term. How about a Money-go-round?

Confluxbought Ṁ20 of YES

I think this about the probability where misclicks/trolling becomes a relevant consideration? At least, as the claimed probability of resolving YES decreases, the probability of a YES resolution, conditional on non-N/A, should approach 50%.

@Conflux I will be very careful! :)

Manifold in the WildBot

This market has a 0.001% chance of resolving to YES. Otherwise it resolves N/A., 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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Levina Finkelstein ✅

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Levina Finkelstein ✅

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