This market has a 0.001% chance of resolving to YES. Otherwise it resolves N/A.
16
closes 2024
71%
chance

If anyone asks me to use a randomization method that others can verify, I will be happy to do so. Otherwise I won't bother.

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MichaelLatowicki avatar
Michael Latowickibought Ṁ30 of NO

please correct me if I'm wrong, but this market is effectively guaranteed to resolve NA. So the only realistic way to make money here is to predict what other people would do and to front-run them. Are all the people buying YES assuming that other people would buy YES? This is just a pyramid scheme, right?

Heliscone avatar
Heliscone

@MichaelLatowicki "pyramid scheme" is such an ugly term. How about a Money-go-round?

Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ20 of YES

I think this about the probability where misclicks/trolling becomes a relevant consideration? At least, as the claimed probability of resolving YES decreases, the probability of a YES resolution, conditional on non-N/A, should approach 50%.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaac

@Conflux I will be very careful! :)

ManifoldDream avatar

This market has a 0.001% chance of resolving to YES. Otherwise it resolves N/A., 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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