One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.
Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)
Related questions
It seems to be at least plausible, if you want to believe like I do: https://www.uaptheory.com/
@KitRedgrave Thank you for sharing this insane website.
My main objection is simple: if there were aliens, it should probably be extremely obvious.
If there were an alien civ with this level of technology they would have absolutely no need to hide from us
Also, big red flags with this website: it doesn't have any names attached, and it claims both that the authors used to be skeptics, and then insults skeptics as being arrogant and biased.
"We used to be skeptics about UAPs before the Pentagon release, so we know this type of person very well and understand how they think. Skeptics see UAPs on the same level as believing in ghosts, so the possibility is not even an option to them and they will always come up with a mundane alternative... But a skeptic with only cut low-res videos somehow figures out a mundane explanation and then communicates that as a fact, which demonstrates bias and arrogance.'
@ForrestTaylor ...y'know what, I'd actually be okay with that hypothetical world too. :P
@KitRedgrave I'm not even being sarcastic. The trick is that the cultural idea of what a ghost looks like comes from Victorian era photos, where white-colored people sometimes look faded because they moved during the exposure. Ghosts aren't translucent, it's not like the soul is made of tiny particles hanging in the air.
If you've actually seen a ghost- and I assure you that you probably have, within the last year- they just look like any other person.
Probably, nobody else saw that person but you.
And you can't photograph them because you're not seeing them with your eyes.
@Dreamingpast My interpretation: AIs from Earth are indigenous to Earth. They are alien to humans only in the same way that spiders are alien to humans. AIs from Earth are not aliens, AIs from space are aliens.
@ForrestTaylor oh yes birth of a new species right in front of our screens, not aliens, interesting!