Is there extraterrestrial life within 10 light years from the solar system?
10
142Ṁ3582035
21%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Distance from the center of the Sun to the object at the time of discovery (so visiting asteroid or spacecraft counts).
Life transported from AND originating on Earth does not count.
The close date will be extended if needed.
Resolves YES on conclusive evidence, NO once the solar vicinity has been throughly explored and understood.
Inspired by the markets created by @RemNi e.g. /RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will extraterrestrial life be found by 2100?
38% chance
Will we discover extraterrestrial life (past or present) anywhere in the solar system by EOY 2100?
15% chance
Conditional on us making contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life, how many light years away is it from Earth?
190
As of our 2023 light cone, is there extraterrestrial life in the galaxy?
55% chance
Will we reach intelligent extraterrestrial life before the end of the century?
11% chance
By the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system?
20% chance
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?
68% chance
Does extraterrestrial life at least as complex as a fly exist anywhere in the solar system?
7% chance
Is there life on any body in the solar system other than Earth?
If abiogenetically distinct alien life is discovered in the solar system before 2070, where will it be first discovered?