If someone investigates Manifold's accuracy before and after charity donations were turned off, will they find a significant decrease?
8
84
แน€190
resolved Jul 18
Resolved
N/A

Refers to whatever methodology is used by the investigator, as long as it seems fair and accuate. (People who care about charity leaving the platform and also being better predictors is not a confounder; that's an acceptible cause of a decrease in accuracy that would resolve this market YES. However I would like it to account for other things like a greater user base due to a new community joining.)

Resolves NO if there is no change or an increase in accuracy.

Get แน€1,000 play money
Sort by:
predicted NO

@IsaacKing this should probably N/A right, as charity was never removed?

predicted YES

@HenriThunberg I sorta figure leave it up until the program ends. No issue if it is N/A'ed, but I'd just make a replacement market.

@RobertCousineau Go for it :)