If investigated, will it be found that mana being able to direct charitable donations increases manifolds accuracy?
Mini
5
37
2030
41%
chance

The intent of this market is to predict if mana being able to direct charitable donations increases the accuracy of Manifold. This market will resolve to the results of step 2, assuming both steps are fulfilled

1: Mana is no longer able to direct charitable donations

2: Someone runs a good faith study/investigation into the accuracy of Manifold before and after.

Whatever methodology is used by the investigator, as long as it seems fair and accuate is OK.

People who care about charity leaving the platform and also being better predictors is not a confounder; it's an acceptible cause of a decrease in accuracy that would resolve this market YES.

If mana is no longer able to be donated to charity, but does have value in a different way I reserve the right to N/A this market. I will not bet in this market.

Credit to @IsaacKing for the idea: manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-someone-investigates-manifolds-a

Get Ṁ600 play money