If Manifold starts giving out blue checks to its users, will one of them resolve a market incorrectly before the end of 2023?
13
16
270
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
YES
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sold Ṁ1,000 of YES

@IsaacKing this one can also resolve yes

predicted YES

@firstuserhere What market made this resolve?

predicted YES
predicted NO

I resolved these markets incorrectly. Did I have the badge at the time? I don't remember.

https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/poll-am-i-in-the-right-in-my-disagr

predicted NO

Looks like the badges were given out on December 7th, and my incorrect resolution occurred on November 25th, so this market doesn't resolve yet.

predicted NO
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Too easy to accidentally resolve incorrectly to think it won’t happen in that timeframe.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@BTE Exactly this. There's probably more highly reputable users who have accidentally misresolved than haven't

predicted YES

@jack could open a question on intention/dishonorable misresolution

predicted NO

@jack I think this market is asking the relevant question though. A "trustworthyness" badge should also imply that they're trusted to make sure that they're about to resolve the market correctly. Traders don't really care why a market was resolved incorrectly, they just care that it happened and they lost mana.

predicted NO

I wonder if I can make it. I'm generally very careful, and I don't believe I've slipped up yet.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing I very strongly believe manifold needs a way for authors to change incorrect resolutions. This would then reduce the problem from what you describe to only needing to be well intentioned and willing to correct mistakes. It also improves many other aspects of the system, e.g. makes capital available to traders again without having to wait unnecessarily.

For a data point, on metaculus resolutions are done by admins and can be corrected, and I have seen quite a large number of corrections, including ones that I don't think the admins could reasonably have avoided.

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