If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years? | Manifold

If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?

If a solar flare at least as strong as the Carrington Event hits Earth before 2030, will we recover within 15 years?

10

1kṀ353

2030

82%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

"Recover" means entirely back to normal, same technology level and standards of living as before. (The trend line can be disrupted, obviously.) Averaged across all of humanity. (e.g. one country being slightly worse and another being slightly better won't prevent this from resolving YES.)

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Do you believe in material implication?

predictedYES 1y

@Najawin The rule of logic? ...Yes?

@IsaacKing So then if no such flare occurs this will obviously resolve true, rather than N/A, because that's what material implication means, right?

predictedYES 1y

@Najawin No, this is a conditional market. Nice try though. :)

To make things clear, when would you say we "recovered" from the COVID-19 pandemic? Late 2021? Early 2022? Late 2022? Early 2023?

predictedYES 1y

@ArmandodiMatteo Hmm, good question. I don't really keep up with economics data, so others would know better than me, but as far as the US goes my impression is early 2023?

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