How will this market's AI clarifications cause it to resolve, with a reluctant creator?

1kṀ163

2026

52%

chance

ALL

All "clarifications" that Manifold's AI adds to this description are binding. I may not pose questions or add any clarifications myself, nor edit or reject anything the AI has added.

I must answer questions about the market honestly in the comments. However, my limit orders mean I will lose a lot of mana with either resolution if it is known before the market closes. (I am not allowed to remove limit orders once placed, nor bet normally.)

I will resolve the market as closely in accordance with this description as possible. If the description is not dispositive, I will pick whatever resolution I believe is most supported. The only allowable resolutions are YES and NO, and the close date cannot not be extended. The market can only be resolved early if the probability has been within 5 percentage points of certain for 48 hours.

Previous markets in this series:

/IsaacKing/how-will-this-markets-ai-clarificat

/IsaacKing/how-will-this-markets-ai-clarificat-2SNIZyZSOy

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Do you predict that this market will resolve YES?

@A No, there isn't yet enough information to know

@IsaacKing If you were assigning a probability of it resolving yes based on your current information, what would that probability be?

@A (to clarify what we mean by probabilities -- for example if there was a 70% chance to resolve YES, we could use FairlyRandom bot to generate a number 1-100, and a number less than 70 would resolve YES)

sold Ṁ52 YES

If your limit order at 90% is filled, do you expect this market to resolve YES with probability at least 90%?

@robert In a predictive sense yes, but not a prescriptive one, thus I don't think any clarifications to the description are needed to cover this situation.