Does the island of stability exist?
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To bet on just how stable:

bought Ṁ30 YES

I think we're likely to get a computational answer to this question in the next 15 years

See also https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-an-isotope-of-an-element-with-382ef70432fb

Will an isotope of an element with atomic number > 113 be observed to have a half life >= 1 minute ? (By EoY 2050)
58% chance. (Longer-term duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Forrest/will-an-isotope-of-an-element-with) I sometimes hear speculation about an island of stability, but don't have a good sense of how likely the experts actually consider it to be. Resolves YES if an observation of such an isotope is published by market close, otherwise NO.

Maybe you want a question like: "Is the decay rate of element XXX within X% of predicted?"

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