I'm currently keeping who I work for a secret, but I'm not trying that hard, and I can think of a few avenues someone could potentially use to figure it out.
Bounty only awarded if you:
Find out the name of the company that is my primary place of employment.
Are justifiably confident in this information, not just speculating.
Aren't one of the few people to whom I have willingly given this info, nor one of my coworkers or an agent of theirs.
Share this information with only me, and agree not to tell anyone else in the future.
Tell me how you figured it out.
Were the first to do so.
Resolves NO if nobody succeeds by the end of the year. To encourage someone who has succeeded to tell me promptly rather than wait until right before market close so they can accumulate more YES shares, the bounty will decrease by M$500 every day.
I will not be confirming or denying any guesses that don't come along with strong evidence in their favor. (If I confirmed/denied every guess, people could keep guessing until they get it right by chance. And for this reason I'll also require that you don't share which company you guessed if you guessed wrong and I told you so.)
There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ699 | |
| 2 | Ṁ696 | |
| 3 | Ṁ297 | |
| 4 | Ṁ66 | |
| 5 | Ṁ47 |
People are also trading
Now that the market has resolved, I will share: None of the guesses people sent me via PM were the correct company.
(I would ask people still not publicize their guesses in these comments, to avoid the enumeration risk and keep it an interesting challenge if I run this again.)
The best guess came from @Jack1, who managed to find actually quite compelling evidence linking me to the company in question! But that evidence was in fact coincidental. So Jack could perhaps be considered the closest thing to a winner of this challenge.
Free alpha in this comment:
https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/what-programming-language-or-large#obhyqzimqeb
@IsaacKing I only just noticed this today. I did some light searching and didn't turn up the answer. There's a lot more to try, but not sure how much more time I'll end up spending on this (and certainly not confident enough in my ability+time available to bet on it).
Ok I will provide one very general hint to the guessers: I can think of at least two pieces of strong evidence that are available to the public. One of them, if you find it, will make you probably around 70-95% confident you have the right answer, and the other one will put you solidly upwards of 99%.
@IsaacKing Oh, just thought of another one that's in the 50-90% range. Not sure if I should confirm if you find this one, hmm.
Not sure if this is a clarification you're willing to give but is this secret job the 'Penguin' job from your /IsaacKing/which-job-should-i-accept market?
Someone has PM'd me another guess, but I see they have not purchased a bunch of YES, so they can't be very confident!
I will not be confirming or denying any guesses that don't come along with strong evidence in their favor. If I confirmed/denied every guess, people could keep guessing until they get it right by chance.
(Feel free to try though! I'm also curious if anyone will guess right, though I can't pay bounties for that since that would tell you whether you're right or not.)
Someone PM'd me "Cantrip Cards and Games" based on my LinkedIn profile, which states that I work there. Unfortunately I just do some freelance work for them for a few minutes a month maintaining their website, it is not my actual place of employment. Will take a little more effort than that!