By the end of 2050, it will not be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations

Question

Full question:

By 2050, it will still not be possible to increase a healthy adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days.

One of the questions from https://jacyanthis.com/big-questions.

Resolves according to my judgement of whether the criteria have been met, taking into account clarifications from @JacyAnthis, who made those predictions. (The goal is that they'd feel comfortable betting to their credance in this market, so I want the resolution criteria to match their intention.)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 72% chance (12 traders, as of Aug 19, 2025).