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Would have had a much better year if he simply started being an AI focused writer. Oh well!

https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/can-a-paperclip-maximizer-overthrow

Could you provide examples of minimal amount of work that would be enough to resolve yes?

@napewno Hmm. Pretty much any announcement that they're going to start seriously working on AI risk would qualify, even if they change their mind within a few weeks.

If I find out they've put 3+ hours a day into work intended to help mitigate AI risk (not research into whether they should start working on it) and have kept this up consistently for a few weeks, that would also be sufficient.

Basically, this market will resolve positively if I think Richard would answer "yes" to the question "Are you working on AI risk?"

@IsaacKing In Hanania’s recent podcast with Robin Hanson, he begins by saying, “I’ve started looking into this [AI] issue seriously over the last few months.”

@NathanNguyen https://www.cspicenter.com/p/waiting-for-the-betterness-explosion#details

@NathanNguyen Note that looking into an issue to determine whether it's worth working on is not the same as actually working on it.

@IsaacKing Hmm fair enough… It does seem like he’s sold on the importance of AI though. And now what he’s doing is catching up on the debates that have happened on the issue

@NathanNguyen Based on their last article, they seem to have an extremely rudimentary understanding of the topic only, and were optimistic about it not being a risk due to geopolitics keeping AI in check. Has it gotten better since then?

@RichardHanania

Despite his questionable physiognomy—he’s at least smart enough to understand that geopolitics and rogue actors dominate AI risk, rather than get lost in silly philosophy

@Gigacasting OCCIDENTAL HAPLOGROUP B4 IS DONE GIVING ORDERS AROUND HERE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE "HAM SANDWICH RACE" IS WANING.

Like a dog returns to its vomit, a fool returns to his folly. I don't think that Hanania will be able to stay away from politics.

Hard to see how he would see himself as having comparative advantage.

He says he’s reading on the topic. What more would count as “spending a significant amount of time” on it?

@NathanNguyen I want to ask about him working on it as a method of improving the world. Not just him doing research on whether he should do that.