By the end of 2023, will Richard Hanania begin spending a significant amount of time working on AI risk?
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135
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resolved Jan 27
Resolved
NO

https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/links-and-best-of-twitter-129

Emotionally, the most important thing that has hit me this week is the unveiling of ChatGPT, which brings home the point that a lot of smart people think we’re all doomed before long and there isn’t much we can do about it. I’m considering dropping everything else to work on this topic.

https://richardhanania.substack.com/p/reflections-on-2022

ChatGPT, as I’ve said before, brings home the possibility that artificial intelligence might be the end of humanity. I’m in the process of doing some reading and developing my thoughts on the topic, so I don’t have much to say now, but soon will.

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predicted NO

Would have had a much better year if he simply started being an AI focused writer. Oh well!

predicted YES

Could you provide examples of minimal amount of work that would be enough to resolve yes?

@napewno Hmm. Pretty much any announcement that they're going to start seriously working on AI risk would qualify, even if they change their mind within a few weeks.

If I find out they've put 3+ hours a day into work intended to help mitigate AI risk (not research into whether they should start working on it) and have kept this up consistently for a few weeks, that would also be sufficient.

Basically, this market will resolve positively if I think Richard would answer "yes" to the question "Are you working on AI risk?"

bought Ṁ150 of YES

@IsaacKing In Hanania’s recent podcast with Robin Hanson, he begins by saying, “I’ve started looking into this [AI] issue seriously over the last few months.”

@NathanNguyen Note that looking into an issue to determine whether it's worth working on is not the same as actually working on it.

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Hmm fair enough… It does seem like he’s sold on the importance of AI though. And now what he’s doing is catching up on the debates that have happened on the issue

@NathanNguyen Based on their last article, they seem to have an extremely rudimentary understanding of the topic only, and were optimistic about it not being a risk due to geopolitics keeping AI in check. Has it gotten better since then?

predicted YES

Despite his questionable physiognomy—he’s at least smart enough to understand that geopolitics and rogue actors dominate AI risk, rather than get lost in silly philosophy

predicted YES

@Gigacasting OCCIDENTAL HAPLOGROUP B4 IS DONE GIVING ORDERS AROUND HERE. THE INFLUENCE OF THE "HAM SANDWICH RACE" IS WANING.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Like a dog returns to its vomit, a fool returns to his folly. I don't think that Hanania will be able to stay away from politics.

predicted NO

Hard to see how he would see himself as having comparative advantage.

He says he’s reading on the topic. What more would count as “spending a significant amount of time” on it?

@NathanNguyen I want to ask about him working on it as a method of improving the world. Not just him doing research on whether he should do that.