
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
Will most physicists believe in a version of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis by 2030?
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200Ṁ4922030
8%
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Resolves YES if a super-majority (2/3rds) of cosmologists and / or theoretical physicists agree one way or the other, according to a reputable survey, on or before the year 2030.
If no "reputable" survey exists by the end date, then the market will resolve as NO.
Reputable surveys have at least 100 responses and are performed by a reputable organization.
"A version" of the Mathematical Universe Hypothesis is defined as any "theory of everything" where "the universe is a mathematical object in and of itself".
Some info on the mathematical universe hypothesis can be found here.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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