
Are self-replicating nanobots possible?
18
370Ṁ3217resolved Apr 13
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Market resolves once our knowledge of physics and engineering is sufficent to have a definitive answer to the question.
Must be capable of self-replication in a large number of common environments, not just specialized ones. Must be at most 100nm in any dimension.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ53 | |
2 | Ṁ19 | |
3 | Ṁ10 | |
4 | Ṁ5 | |
5 | Ṁ4 |
Sort by:
@JamesSully That's more of a microbot. Let's say they have to be no longer than 100nm in any direction.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?
47% chance
AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
82% chance
Will any human-created robot or life form create a copy of itself before 2030?
45% chance
Will Nanotechnology Enable the Creation of Self-Assembling or Morphing Consumer Products Commonplace by 2050?
58% chance
By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
36% chance
Will nanotechnology wipe out humanity by 2100?
11% chance
(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?
2026
Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?
39% chance