Are self-replicating nanobots possible? | Manifold

Are self-replicating nanobots possible?

Basic

18

Ṁ3217

resolved Apr 13

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Market resolves once our knowledge of physics and engineering is sufficent to have a definitive answer to the question.

Must be capable of self-replication in a large number of common environments, not just specialized ones. Must be at most 100nm in any dimension.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Ok, here's a better market on what I'm trying to ask:

Actually I think this market is just bad. I'm gonna resolve it to YES and give Michael a manalink for botlab.

@MichaelWheatley @Botlab https://manifold.markets/link/XPypDGnv

Related:

why don't bacteria count as a yes already

@jacksonpolack Not "bots".

predicted YES

what's the maximum width? 999 nanometres?

@JamesSully That's more of a microbot. Let's say they have to be no longer than 100nm in any direction.

Cells exist, and are understood adequately well from physical principles, so this should resolve as YES already.

@adele Too big and not bots.

Related questions

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

Will Nanotechnology Enable the Creation of Self-Assembling or Morphing Consumer Products Commonplace by 2050?

Will nanotechnology wipe out humanity by 2100?

Will any human-created robot or life form create a copy of itself before 2030?

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

Related questions

Will a complex nanoscale self-replicating assembler be developed before 2040?

Will any human-created robot or life form create a copy of itself before 2030?

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?

Will Nanotechnology Enable the Creation of Self-Assembling or Morphing Consumer Products Commonplace by 2050?

Will we have a "text to polymer-sequence-that-folds-into-a-nanomachine-with-the-requirements-from-text" AI by 2040?

Will nanotechnology wipe out humanity by 2100?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules