Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2040?

Question

Advanced nanotechnology, specifically atomically precise manufacturing (APM), holds potential for revolutionizing industries and technology. Ben Snodin, a researcher with a relevant PhD, defines "consequential APM" as a complex APM technology that can create a range of complex, very high-performance products for $1000/kg or less and with a throughput of 1kg every 3 days or less per kg of machinery. The development of consequential APM systems could have significant implications for a range of applications and industries.

Before January 1, 2040, will consequential APM systems be developed, as evidenced by credible reports or academic publications?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2040, credible reports or academic publications provide clear and strong evidence that at least one consequential APM system has been developed. For the purpose of this question, a "consequential APM system" is defined as:

A complex APM system, with at least 99.9% of the nanoscale machines' atomic structures matching the desired design, and at least 99.9% of the products' atomic structures matching the intended design.

The system operates in a vacuum and performs at least 10^6 operations per second.

The consequential APM system creates a range of complex, very high-performance products with varying sizes from nanoscale to meter-scale and beyond.

The system achieves a production cost of $1000/kg or less for the manufactured products.

The system demonstrates a throughput of 1 kg of atomically precise products every 3 days or less per kg of machinery.

Examples of consequential APM systems include, but are not limited to:

A consequential APM system capable of producing atomically precise graphene sheets with a purity of at least 99.999% carbon atoms and minimal defects (vacancies, substitutions, or Stone-Wales defects) not exceeding 1 defect per 10^6 carbon atoms, at a cost of $1000/kg or less and with a throughput of 1 kg every 3 days or less per kg of machinery.

A system that can construct atomically precise nanowires with a diameter uniformity of at least 99.9% and minimal defects in the crystal structure (e.g., dislocations, vacancies, or substitutions) not exceeding 1 defect per 10^4 unit cells, at a cost of $1000/kg or less and with a throughput of 1 kg every 3 days or less per kg of machinery.

A consequential APM system that constructs atomically precise protein structures for use in advanced drug delivery systems or therapeutics, with an accurate amino acid sequence error rate of no more than 1 in 10^4 amino acids, and a folding error rate not exceeding 1 in 10^3 proteins, at a cost of $1000/kg or less and with a throughput of 1 kg every 3 days or less per kg of machinery.

The question will resolve positively if credible reports or academic publications demonstrate the development of a consequential APM system meeting the criteria specified before January 1, 2040. If no such evidence is provided by the deadline, the question will resolve negatively.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 45% chance (19 traders, as of Jan 2, 2025).