claim in tweet says 2029, I gave 1 extra year to make it more interesting: https://nitter.cz/YuqiiQian/status/1629828184081567745#m
Feb 28, 9:45pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by 2030? → Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030?
Feb 28, 10:35pm: Will CNSA / China land on the moon by the end of 2030? → Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?
How will this resolve if there's a collaboration between CNSA and SpaceX, for example? What makes a mission "CNSA / China"?
@Mqrius First, I think the wolf amendment + chinese nationalism would make it VERY difficult for that to happen. But, I think that would probably not count, as the tweet implies that chinese hardware would be exclusively used.
@Isaac228c If there's any particular reason you think this might happen I'd be very interested to hear!
@JoshuaWilkes If you're willing to buy at 62, once you account for whatever premium you want I assume your true probability is significantly higher. I'll meet you right smack in the middle at 66.
@Sailfish I've taken a chunk of it. Will leave some for the other nice people