Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if credible reporting confirms that Israeli weapons strike targets inside Iranian territory by 11:59 PM UTC on March 31, 2026. Strikes must originate from Israeli forces and impact Iranian soil. Resolution sources include major news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, etc.), official Israeli government statements, or confirmed satellite imagery. The market resolves NO if no such strikes occur by the deadline.

Background

The Iran-Israel war (June 13-24, 2025) began when Israel bombed military and nuclear facilities in Iran, and Iran retaliated with over 550 ballistic missiles and over 1,000 suicide drones. On June 24, Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire under US pressure. On January 5, 2026, the Israeli Security Cabinet authorized additional strikes on Iran, following Netanyahu-Trump discussions. Iran has reportedly reconstituted its medium-range ballistic missile stockpile to pre-war levels. Iran is continuing to rebuild its nuclear facilities and trying to fortify them against future attacks, with recent US intelligence finding that Iran is trying to rebuild nuclear facilities "deeper underground."

Considerations

Decision-making circles in the United States and Israel have moved past diplomacy with Iran, viewing military action as effectively decided, with only the timing still under debate, according to a Western source familiar with coordination talks. However, Trump said reaching a deal with Iran is his 'preference' after a meeting with Netanyahu. Gulf states including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Egypt have urged the United States not to attack Iran because they were concerned that Iran could retaliate by striking their territory.

This description was generated by AI.