Russia-NATO war vs. Putin president
11
235Ṁ2202035
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
60%
No war before 1.1.2035
35%
War, Putin president of Russia
5%
War, Putin not president of Russia
War: Armed conflict with more than 1000 dead. Does not have to be declared, or reported as war.
NATO: NATO members at the moment of the conflict start.
Putin: It will be decisive whether he is president at the start of the war.
I will use my best guess in assessing whether there has been more than 1000 dead. I will not bet on the market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@Fion Only citizens of Russia or NATO count, it needs to be direct conflict. Terrorist attack killing 1000 people would count if it can be attributed to the other party with high enough confidence.
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