Lunar Gateway first occupied by a crew before 1/1/2029?

Question

Other resolution criteria than time are the same as in the corresponding Metaculus market.

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13785/first-occupation-of-lunar-gateway/

Update 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the Lunar Gateway program is cancelled without ever being occupied, this market will resolve No.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Almost certainly not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 2% chance (12 traders, as of Mar 24, 2026).