If there is Russia-NATO war by 2030, which NATO country gets invaded the first?
24
1kṀ9692030
39%
Estonia
8%
Latvia
13%
Lithuania
4%
Poland
23%
Finland
7%
Romania
0.8%
Bulgaria
4%
Ukraine
2%
If there is no war 1/1/2030, the question is a N/A.
If there is, the YES is evenly distributed between countries that get invaded during the first day.
If Russia is invaded by a NATO country first, the question resolves to Russia, although it is not a NATO country. (The option gets added from Other).
Individual incidents (terrorist attack, bombing, etc.) do not count, it has to be an army invading the country at large, or other form of attack causing thousands of fatalities.
Due to partially subjective nature of the resolution criteria, I will not bet on the market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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