Context: May 27th, 2023: heavy gunfire was exchanged on the Afghanistan-Iran border between the Taliban and Iran, causing fatalities and injuries on both sides. This incident significantly heightened the existing tensions between the two nations over a dispute concerning water rights.

Resolution Criteria: This bet will resolve as YES if, at any point within 2023, the conflict between Iran and the Taliban escalates. An escalation is defined as consistent military engagements, further exchange of heavy fire with no resolution, or a formal declaration of war. If no such escalation occurs within 2023, the bet will resolve as NO.